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Completion of the module reading assignment is necessary to complete this discussion. 
Choose an example of a hazard in aviation and how it is being controlled. Consider the following:
Is the process of hazard control a proactive, predictive, or reactive process?
Would the threat error management method effectively manage the control in your example? 
please respond too both responses at the bottom
paige kemp 
The hazard that I will be using is weather. Weather can be very unpredictable, which can lead to many potential issues if the unexpected occurs during the operation of an aircraft. Weather can be a hazard in many ways, such as thunderstorms and other convective weather, in-flight icing, turbulence, as well as ceiling and visibility (Kulsea, 2024). As we have seen throughout aviation as well as more recently, weather can come out of the blue and can be fatal. The Singapore Airlines turbulence incident last month is a perfect example of how dangerous unpredicted weather can be. Back in 2018, while I was managing a flight school, there was unexpected weather that caused a plane crash. Luckily, both pilots walked away with just some cuts and bruises. They were conducting a cross country training flight and severe thunderstorms rolled in quickly that had wind gusts around 20 knots and large hail. While attempting to land, the wind shear increased so the instructor attempted to pull up, but the aircraft was forced down and hit nearby homes landing the aircraft upside down in a retention pond (NTSB, 2018). They were very lucky, and this is just one of many incidents that have occurred from inclement weather.
The process of hazard control should be predictive. Predictive risk management would be a good option since the goals of proactive risk management are to identify what leads to a hazard occurrence and stop it prior to happening and identify root causes. This can be done by having a team that can use available data to monitor and prepare for unpredictable weather patterns and establish how to avoid any errors that commonly occur. Pulling data from past experiences can be very helpful with this control method.
I do believe that the threat error management method could effectively manage the control with weather. I personally feel like this can coincide with predictive risk management as it can be used to understand systematic patterns within events (ICAO, 2024). This can be done by analyzing historical data on weather events and preparing crews on how to handle said situations.
References
ICAO. (2024). Threat and Error Management (TEM). Retrieved from SKYbrary: https://skybrary.aero/articles/threat-and-error-management-tem
Kulsea, G. (2024). Weather and Aviation: How Does Weather Affect the Safety and Operations of Airports and Aviation, and How Does FAA Work to Manage Weather-related Effects? Retrieved from Department of Transportation: https://www.transportation.gov/sites/dot.gov/files/docs/kulesa_Weather_Aviation.pdf
NTSB. (2018, June 9). Loss of control Accident Piper PA-44-180 Seminole N21161. Retrieved from Aviation Safety Network: https://asn.flightsafety.org/wikibase/211974
walter johnson
For this discussion post, I will be analyzing the hazard of hand-flying skill deficiency with flight crews and within flight training. In order to see what hazard control would work best and what kind of threat/error management methods would work best, it is important to see why this hazard needs to be addressed. In January of 2023, United Airlines and Qatar Airlines both had incidents where an aircraft came close to making contact with the ocean surface following take-off, while the direct cause has not been pinpointed yet, many within the industry feel that the lack of hand-flying practice and overreliance on automation is posing serious safety risk (Leahy & Fisher, 2023). Along with this, the Federal Aviation Administration has put out an advisory circular recommending that air carriers implement training practices that focus on manual aircraft control and managing automated systems (FAA, 2022). 
With this hazard laid out, I believe that there are many control methods that would be beneficial when dealing with this hazard. For example, when using the proactive approach, airlines that would seek out pilots who already have a hand-flying background would already have a foundation when it comes to that skill. When using a predictive method, we’re already seeing some of these methods used such as flight data and confidential reporting (Halford,2014). When dealing with a reactive approach, sadly it could be argued that the crash of Atlas Air Flight 3591 was partially caused by the improper manual inputs from the pilot, causing the aircraft to crash into the ocean, in this case the data gained from this incident could be applied to future policy dictating the requirements for manual control practices (NTSB, 2020).
With these hazard controls highlighted, I firmly believe that threats and error management would be beneficial when dealing with this hazard. There are multiple methods that could be pulled from Threat and error management that could be applied to the flight training process, especially when it comes to unforeseen conditions or aircraft states (Halford, 2014).
Sincerely
Walter Johnson
References
Mr, H.C. D. (2015). Safety Management Systems in Aviation (2nd ed.). Taylor & Francis. https://bookshelf.vitalsource.com/books/9781472431769Links to an external site.
Leahy, J., & Fisher, A. (2023, February 17). FAA shifts focus to pilot manual handling skills. Royal Aeronautical Society; Royal Aeronautical Society. https://www.aerosociety.com/news/faa-shifts-focus-to-pilot-manual-handling-skills/Links to an external site.
Federal Aviation Administration(2022). AC 120-23 (pp. 1–46) [Review of AC 120-23]. Federal Aviation Administration. chrome-extension://efaidnbmnnnibpcajpcglclefindmkaj/https://www.faa.gov/documentLibrary/media/Advisory_Circular/AC_120-123.pdf
National Transportation Safety Board(2020). Aircraft Accident Report Rapid Descent and Crash into Water Atlas Air Inc. Flight 3591 Boeing 767-375BCF, N1217A Trinity Bay, Texas February 23, 2019 (pp. 1–141) . National Transportation Safety Board. chrome-extension://efaidnbmnnnibpcajpcglclefindmkaj/https://www.ntsb.gov/investigations/AccidentRepo